Technical “Analysis”

In the past, a lot of the content around Crypto was focused on philosophy, economics, politics, technology, but more recently as the prices climb there are more finance types dominating crypto content.

If you go on Youtube today and search bitcoin, most of the top videos are what you could call technical analysis.

You could call it technical analysis, I prefer to call it stupidity.

Most of this “analysis” focuses on looking at charts displaying the price information of cryptocurrencies over time and pretending that past shapes on the charts somehow predict the future price.

Watching these videos genuinely boggles my mind. These guys are able to seriously deliver predictions about the price of cryptocurrencies without mentioning the actual use cases or ideas behind the product.

A rediulous example of this happened in November when a proposed fork of Bitcoin was called off and as a result the price of Bitcoin Cash immedietly spiked. To these technical “analysts” they were explaing this by looking at how BCH hit a “level of support” and “broke out from a wedge”. They were completely lost in the abstaction and unable to realize that the price was changing in relation to the actual product.

 

The price of something is determined by how much people are willing to pay for it. The price that someone was willing to pay in the past is a good first guess at what the price will be in the future. But if you are trying to predict what a price will do in the future, you need to pull your head out of your…. abstraction and think about the economics of the situation and not draw shapes on Bloomberg charts.

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